Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.16% at 19350 on lower arrivals and expectation of fall in domestic output due to pink bollworm attacks in some states. Cotton Advisory Board expects India's cotton output in the year started October to rise 9% to 377 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg) due to an increase in acreage and possibility of a high yield in Rajasthan. In 2016-17 (Oct-Sep), India's cotton output was 34.5 lakh bales.

However, the farm ministry's estimate for the current season is lower at 322.7 lakh bales, compared with 330.9 lakh bales a year ago. The USDA raised the US production number slightly to 21.44 million bales, on a 2 lb increase in yield to 902 lbs/ac. The US ending stocks number was lowered 0.3 million bales, as exports were raised by that amount.

The world ending stocks number was trimmed 2.88 million bales to 88 million bales. Production in India was trimmed 0.5 mt, as Pakistan was down 0.95 mt. At a time when cotton has started to arrive in the market, dragging the price down, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has begun procurement operations at select places in Gujarat and Telangana.

According to top CCI officials, the agency will procure at important cotton growing locations as and when the prices go below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) level once the arrivals gather pace.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.64% to settled at 4264 while prices up 30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 19210 and below same could see a test of 19070 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 19480, a move above could see prices testing 19610.

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Cardamom on MCX settled down by -0.1% at 1054 amid good arrivals in the auctions at Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The prolonged south-west monsoon has helped raise the cardamom output in the country causing prices to drop by 25 per cent much to the relief of exporters who are getting increased orders from the Gulf market. With prices declining this month, exporters are picking up more quantity for exports.

The crop was low in the first round. Arrivals are averaging 150-200 tonnes a day. A third round of harvest may be possible which could extend the current arrivals till December. When the harvest started, growers estimated crop output to remain in the range of 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes. But now they expect output to go beyond 20,000 tonnes.

Two years ago, the country reaped a bumper harvest of 30,000 tonnes. Cardamom exports have been on the rise from the beginning of the year. The first quarter ended June 2017 saw shipments at 1,220 tonnes worth Rs 134.55 crore, up 10 per cent in volumes and 48 per cent in value compared to the same period the previous year. Increase in arrivals after September was accompanied by a price rally with domestic demand rebounding during festival season.

Admitting that the price fall has benefitted them, exporters said the demand was robust from Gulf countries. Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.84% to settled at 362 while prices down -1.1 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1044.4 and below same could see a test of 1034.8 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1059.3, a move above could see prices testing 1064.6.

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Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.18% at 21905 recovered on short covering after prices dropped on increased supplies from growing belts amid ample stock position. Strong demand of the spice commodity in domestic and overseas market trimmed further loss. The market is cautious at higher levels on good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat.

In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 37.4% to 3.1 lakh ha this year compared to 2.3 lakh ha last year. As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 10 days of Dec down by 60% to 906.7 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.

India's 2016-17 cumin output fell to 489,000 ton from 503,000 ton a year ago and as a result stocks with traders and farmers are stated to lower. Apprehensions of drop in supplies in the days may support prices to trade higher. India jeera is stated to cheaper as compared to that of Syria and Turkey in global markets and is in good demand. 

At present stock with traders and farmers is insufficient to meet the demand till February next year when new jeera crop will hit the markets. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 99.3 Rupees to end at 21010 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.06% to settled at 10113 while prices up 40 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 21725 and below same could see a test of 21540 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 22070, a move above could see prices testing 22230.

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Turmeric on NCDEX settled up by 0.7% at 7436 on short covering after prices dropped amid weak physical demand and expectation of good supplies from the new season. The supplies have improved during last one month due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. The arrivals have been higher during first 10 days in December this year to 10,130 tonnes compared to 3,372 tonnes last year same month according to data.

After waiting for nearly two months in hope of better prices, Andhra Pradesh State Co-operative Marketing Federation accepted bids for sale of 800-900 tn turmeric. Of the total quantity, bids for 300 tn of the bulb variety of turmeric were accepted at 6,000-6,200 rupees per 100 kg, while the remaining 400-500 tn of the finger variety was quoted at 6,500 rupees. AP Markfed had in July offered 48,500 tn turmeric for sale through NCDEX e-Markets Ltd.

The total quantity was procured at 6,500 rupees per 100 kg from farmers in May, after prices had fallen to 5,200 rupees. Arrivals of the new crop are likely to hit markets by December-end. However, officials of AP Markfed declined to comment when contacted. In Telangana's Nizamabad market, the finger variety and the bulb variety were sold at 8,000 rupees and 7,800 rupees per 100 kg, respectively.

In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7617.65 Rupees gained 117.65 Rupees.Technically now Turmeric is getting support at 7376 and below same could see a test of 7316 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7476, a move above could see prices testing 7516.

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Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 0.22% at 4028 on short covering tracking firmness in spot demand after prices dropped due to reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers. According to MOPA, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on now was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month.

As per rabi sowing report from the government, the acreage of mustard, another major rabi crop, was at 59 lakh ha, down from 64 lakh ha a year ago. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.4 lakh ha. Mustard seed acreage across India during current rabi season may fall compared to last year as warm weather and moisture stress in Rajasthan hit sowing operations, said a senior official of agriculture ministry.

Normally, southwest monsoon starts withdrawing from Rajasthan by early September but this year it was delay though rain were weak in the state. Mustard sowing declined by 9.51% to 5.55 million hectare until December 1, agriculture ministry data showed. Last year, acreage stood at 6.13 million hectares in the corresponding period. 

In Rajasthan, the largest mustard seed producing state, sowing stood at 2.07 million hectares down from 2.72 million hectare a year ago. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 12.9 Rupees to end at 4115.15 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.1% to settled at 38660 while prices up 9 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4000 and below same could see a test of 3972 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4047, a move above could see prices testing 4066.

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Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.18% at 560.4 tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices on weak export demand . Demand in the coming weeks are expected to be low due to weak demand during the winter and after India, the world's largest edible oil importer, raised import taxes to a more than decade-high.

Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports during Dec. 1-10 fell 22.9 percent from a month earlier, while Intertek Testing Services reported a 16.6 percent decline for the same period. Palm oil demand usually weakens at year-end as it solidifies in cold temperatures, leading buyers such as China and Europe in the northern hemisphere to reduce purchases.

Malaysian palm oil inventories rose to their highest in nearly two years in November, data from a government body showed, as a slowdown in exports outweighed a drop in production. Stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer after Indonesia, rose 16 percent from the previous month to 2.56 million tonnes, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Sources said end-stocks were higher than forecast on weaker-than-expected demand.

November exports fell 11.9 percent from the previous month to 1.35 million tonnes, a first fall in five months on India's decision in November to raise its edible oil import taxes to the highest in more than a decade.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.32% to settled at 3745 while prices down -1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 559.2 and below same could see a test of 558 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 562.2, a move above could see prices testing 564.

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Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled down by -0.14% at 728.65 on profit booking tracking weakness in spot demand. The prices have been falling last week due to higher stock levels. The prices have jumped higher to its 10 months higher when government increases the import duty of all edible oils. The government raised the duty of the crude soy oil to 30% from 17.5% to support domestic oilseed industry and farmers.

For the first half of December, government cut the base import price of soy oil, by $18 per tonnes. The government revises base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. Prices were last revised on Nov 30. As per latest SEA import report, Soybean oil imports slumped 21% to 220,200 tons in October from a year earlier while imports dropped during the oil year ended Oct. 31 by 22 % to 3.32 mt.

According to SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives. India's soymeal exports during November quadrupled to 248,000 tn from 61,000 tn a year ago, according to the SOPA. NOPA said that its members crushed 164.242 million bushels of soybeans in October, up from 136.419 million bushels in September whereas it was recorded 164.641 million bushels for corresponding month in last year. 

At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 717.1 Rupees per 10 kgs.Technically now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 727 and below same could see a test of 726 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 730, a move above could see prices testing 732.

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