Cotton on MCX settled down by -0.53% at 20610 tracking weakness in spot demand and overseas prices hurt by a slightly bearish supply demand USDA report as production in China expected to jump 5.6% India cotton traders cancel export deals due to higher local prices and country could export only 5 million bales, each of 170kg, in the 2017/18 marketing year started on 1 October—nearly a quarter below an initial estimate Market arrivals of cotton in the first three months of the 2017-18 marketing season starting October are higher by around 43% over corresponding last year.

However, based on the healthy market arrival trend of cotton so far, the CAI has maintained the crop size for the 2017-18 season at 375 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in its latest estimates. CCI has procured around 5 lakh bales this season of which 4 lakh bales have been procured at MSP and the remaining 1 lakh bales as part of its commercial operations.

The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) purchased nearly 485,000 bales cotton at minimum support price (MSP) fixed by government as prices are ruling firm, said sources. In a bid to protect the interest of farmers government asked the state agency to purchase the natural fibre at state fixed MSP if prices fall below that level. 

"Initially prices were ruling below MSP and we made purchases of 375,000 bales cotton at MSP and the maximum quantity has been bought from the farmers of Telangana," said sources. Technically now Cotton is getting support at 20554 and below same could see a test of 20497 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 20684, a move above could see prices testing 20757.

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Cardamom on MCX settled up by 2.09% at 1121 as prices continued to rise on strong demand despite higher arrivals at auctions held in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Total arrivals last week were up at 892 tonnes last week from 707 tonnes the previous week. The individual auction average has moved up to Rs. 936.32 a kg last week from Rs. 906.32 the previous week.

Depleting inventories in the upcountry markets coupled with buying support from consuming centres could be attributed to the rise in demand. Added to this, the current season’s peak harvesting time is over and hence there exists a fear about squeeze in availability of quality material in the coming days. The auction average was at around Rs. 950 a kg as against Rs. 932 the previous week.

Exporters were also active and said to have bought an estimated 130 tonnes last week. The individual auction average vacillated between Rs. 912 a kg and Rs. 955 a kg last week. Total arrivals during the current season as on December 23 were at 12,760 tonnes and sales were at 12,505 tonnes. The individual auction average of the season was at Rs. 959.96 a kg.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.46% to settled at 458 while prices up 23 rupees, now Cardamom is getting support at 1106.4 and below same could see a test of 1091.7 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 1130.4, a move above could see prices testing 1139.7.

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Jeera on NCDEX settled up by 0.21% at 16925 on short covering after prices dropped on expectation that jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in the current season. India is likely to have exported a little over 102,000 tn of jeera in Apr-Dec, a 12% on-year rise, as political unrest in Syria and waning stocks in Turkey kept these two traditional competitors on the sidelines.

Political unrest in Syria and waning stocks in Turkey have shifted demand for jeera to India completely. India had exported 91,000 tn of the commodity in Apr-Dec 2016, according to Spices Board India. Of the total exports from India, at least 40% are bought by China alone as it prefers the Indian variety over others. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 9-Jan-18.

Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time. Jeera arrivals during first 10 days of Jan 18 were down to 879.5 tonnes on year compared to 3,944 tonnes due to tight supplies and lower stocks with the stockists. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat pressurizes prices.

As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to 10,402 tn. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged up by 80 Rupees to end at 20900 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically now Jeera is getting support at 16740 and below same could see a test of 16550 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 17155, a move above could see prices testing 17380.

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Turmeric on NCDEX settled down by -0.89% at 7570 on profit booking after prices gained amid expectation that the demand will increase. The supplies from the new season turmeric have been lower during first 10 days of Jan at 4,118 tonnes compared to 5,527 tonnes last year, as per data.

The export of turmeric is down by 17% to 63,395 tonnes for the first 7 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. Spot turmeric prices decreased at Erode markets as arrivals rose. Almost all the traders purchased quality turmeric without quoting a higher price.

On Friday, 7,500 bags arrived for sale and 65 per cent were sold. The finger variety was down Rs. 200 a quintal in all the markets and the root variety by Rs. 100. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger turmeric went for Rs. 5,655-8,609 a quintal; the root variety for Rs. 5,389-7,909. Of the 3,750 bags offered, 1,603 were sold.

New crop would commence by the end of this month and expectations of selling by the AP Markfed. AP Markfed had purchased nearly 48,500 ton turmeric under market intervention scheme. Standing turmeric crop is mostly in its vegetative to development stage across major growing states. As per preliminary estimates, output in the season is expected to decline slightly due to lower sowing.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.4% to settled at 10160 while prices down -68 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7506 and below same could see a test of 7440 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 7652, a move above could see prices testing 7732.

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Mustard Seed on NCDEX settled up by 1.1% at 4118 due to an anticipation of good physical uptake by oil mills on expectation of good winter demand. Mustard/rape seed acreage declined to 6.63 million hectare until now as warm weather hit sowing operations badly in Rajasthan, the largest producing state. In 2016-17, farmers planted mustard/rapeseed on 6.99 million hectares till now while total acreages was at 7.05 million hectare, agriculture ministry data showed.

Rajasthan is the largest mustard/rapeseed producing state and last year area under the seed stood at 2.77 million hectares and for this year the state government set a target of 2.8 million hectare. Crushing of mustard during December month slipped 11% compared to previous month on disparity.

Mustard seed crushing dropped to 425,000 tons in December compared to 475,000 tons in November month. Currently the prices were trading lower than its MSP due to reports good progress in sowing season and steady demand.

Currently the prices have been moving according to the winter demand but reports of lower acreage than last year and higher carry-over stocks are putting pressure in futures. The acreage of mustard was down 7.8% till last week at 63.6 lakh ha, as per latest rabi sowing report by the government. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.8 lakh ha.

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.06% to settled at 39990 while prices up 45 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 4083 and below same could see a test of 4048 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4139, a move above could see prices testing 4160.

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Crude palm Oil on MCX settled up by 0.45% at 560.2 tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices amid short covering. Malaysia exported 552,635 tonnes of palm oil products from Jan. 1 to 15, down 7.4 percent from 596,862 tonnes during Dec. 1 to 15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said. As per SEA latest report, During Nov-Dec, import of refined palm oil fell to 254,286 tn from 486,502 tn in corresponding period last year.

However, import of crude palm oil increased to 11.7 lakh tn from 10.3 lakh tn a year ago. Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that palm oil stocks in Malaysia rose 7% on the month to a more than two-year high of 2.7 mt at end-December. Production fell 5.6% on the month to 1.8mt, while exports edged up 4.9% to 1.4 mt.

Earlier, Malaysia suspended export taxes on crude palm oil for a three-month period starting on Jan. 8 to boost prices and reduce stockpiles. Palm oil imports remained flat at 7,22,857 tonne in December because of increase in the import duty, industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said. India, the world's leading vegetable oil buyer, had imported 7,23,158 tonne palm oil in December 2016.

The country's total vegetable oil imports declined 10 per cent to 10,88,783 tonne in December 2017 compared to 12,09,685 tonne in the year-ago period. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.55% to settled at 4381 while prices up 2.5 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 557.8 and below same could see a test of 555.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 561.8, a move above could see prices testing 563.4.

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Ref.Soyaoil on NCDEX settled up by 0.52% at 744.15 tracking firmness in spot demand on supply worries. Prices will also be supported on hope of higher demand from crushers next week.

Lower soyoil imports and increasing demand for festive season will cause higher buying from crushers next week which will keep spot oilseed prices up. India's soyoil shipments plunged to four-year low on higher import duty during December month, data released by Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) of India showed. Soyoil degummed imports during the second month of oil marketing year or in December plunged by 65.85% to 79,250 tons compared to 232,132 tons in the same period a year ago.

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India’s (SEA) latest data of vegetable oil imports show a decline in the imports of refined oils by nearly half in the first two months of the season, November and December 2017, as against the same period last year. The fall in the refined oil imports is seen as a direct effect of the Centre’s move of increasing the duty on edible oils in November last year

. Imports of refined oil (RBD Palmolein) fell to 254,286 tonnes from 486,502 tonnes in same period of last year, down about 48 per cent. But imports of crude oil increased to 2,029,318 tonnes (1,843,657 tonnes). India's vegoil imports in December fell 10 percent to 1.1 million tonnes from a year ago, a trade body said. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 741 Rupees per 10 kgs.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.52% to settled at 37380 while prices up 3.85 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 741 and below same could see a test of 738 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 746, a move above could see prices testing 748.

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